Ladies and gentlemen,
It is a great honour to address such a distinguished audience on such an urgent matter. This is supposed to be a dinner speech – food for thought... Well, I think you have all been in my shoes – feeling a bit uneasy, worried that what you say might cause indigestion... So I guess we'll have to see about desert...
My grandmother once said: If you are failing to plan, you are planning to fail.
She was right of course and that is why planning the Road to Copenhagen, in detail, is so important – we can't afford to fail. So, how are we doing with the home work? Well, I think we can agree that the first stumbling block has been conquered – that of science. We have reached the tipping point. And today even the US Government recognises that climate change is man made and happening.
The next step will be an even greater challenge – to translate words to action, to agree on what, when and how. And what really complicates the agenda setting, is the great complexity and embryonic nature of climate change. It grows and evolves on a daily basis. Meaning that from one day to the other, ideas we thought were solutions turn out to cause new problems. We have - for instance - unknowingly woken up a Golem created from biofuels...
This week the director of the Rome-based World Food Program - Josette Sheeran - reported that skyrocketing food and fuel costs have caused a 500 million dollar shortfall in the agency's 2008 budget of totally 2,9 $billion. And we are only in March. It is extremely serious. The relief agency feeds almost 89 million people in 78 nations, including 58.8 million children. Josette Sheeran blames the booming economies of China and India, bad harvests and droughts... but the key factor is the growing demand for biofuels in the EU and the US. Last year over 100 million tons of cereals were diverted to the production of biofuels – ethanol. Global food reserves are now at their lowest level in 30 years. Over 100 million people in the world cannot afford the price of corn and wheat. In the world's poorest and least developed countries food prices have increased on average by 30% only this year. We have seen serious and violent food riots in Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Senegal and Morocco. .. and even Egypt has started to ration food!
It is clear that we cannot allow a continued production of ethanol based on cereal bio-mass. What we see today is only the tip of the ice-berg. A shift from first to second generation bio-fuels is now a matter of global security. This example and so many other alarming trends spell out six aspects that I think will be imperative to our planning:
First, as a chief principle Climate Change policies must be developed and agreed in a global multilateral framework.
Second, the social dimension of sustainable development - the millennium development goals - have to be factored into the climate change agenda, or we will fail miserably. Mitigation and adaptation strategies must be interconnected.
Third, we don't need to wait for the hydrogen society to arrive – we already have technology, the knowledge and the economy to address the technological side of climate change. An example is cellulose based methanol (second generation bio-fuels) which is an excellent fuel for fuel cells.
Fourth, we need democracy in the sense that there is no way Governments can fix this alone – therefore a post-Kyoto agreement must include hands-on tools for business actors and citizens/consumers.
Fifth, it will require a strong leadership to mobilize actors like China and India – without having them onboard we will fail...
The last and sixth point is about hope. We actually have reasons to be optimistic as we already today have the necessary knowledge, technique and economy to fight the climate change.
In January the European Commission put forward a package of concrete proposals – known as the Energy and Climate Change Package.
I want to stress three main arguments for and about this ambitious and detailed package, the "ideas behind" it if you like.
1. It shows the world that the European Union is serious about achieving smart growth – moving rapidly to an innovative, low-carbon economy.
2. It demonstrates how this can be done cost-effectively.
3. And by taking bold steps in the direction we all have to move, and encouraging others to follow, the European Union is showing real leadership.
Let me say a little more about each of those three points.
First, smart growth. Moving to a low-carbon economy will require a major effort in terms technological development. Governments will have to use the stick and carrot strategy and systematically reward the forerunners.
It will give Europe a first-mover advantage in the pioneering use of clean and high-efficiency technologies. Technologies we intend to export to the rest of the world. At the same time, moving to a low-carbon economy will help secure Europe's energy supplies, reducing our dependence on imported fossil fuels. And it will do so at a cost of only 0.45% of our GDP in 2020, which is far less than the most optimistic estimates of the cost of letting climate change simply happen, that is business as usual.
That brings me to my second point: cost-effectiveness. The key tool for cutting the EU's CO2 emissions is the emissions trading scheme (ETS). I'm sure you are all familiar with it – so I don't need to describe it. I simply want to stress that carbon trading is the most effective way of achieving emission reductions at least cost. The ETS thus serves as a model for the rest of the world. It shows that the global carbon market must play a central role in a post-2012 climate agreement.
Which in turn moves me to my third point: leadership. The EU is moving to a low-carbon economy not just for its own benefit but in order to show the way forward for the world as a whole. And we are offering concrete incentives for other players to move in this direction. For example, if we get a global and comprehensive agreement in Copenhagen in 2009, the EU will automatically increase its emission reduction targets from 20% to 30%. In other words, we are ready to make deeper cuts as soon as others come on board.
Another example is the emission credits. When the EU ratifies a global agreement, its Member States (and companies taking part in the ETS) will be allowed to use significantly more emission credits – but only if they come from countries which are also ratifying the agreement. This creates a real incentive for the more advanced developing countries to ratify, and thus commit to cutting their emissions.
Furthermore, Europe's approach to effort-sharing could also serve as a model for the rest of the world. It obliges the wealthiest Member States to carry the greatest burden of the 20% reductions in emissions we need by 2020. We believe that a similarly fair distribution of the global effort would allow poorer countries to continue growing their economies. It is a matter of putting into effect the United Nations principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."
The road to Copenhagen will not be an easy ride: but, as the Chinese proverb says: "the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step". I believe the EU's Energy and Climate Package is a giant step along that road – and I am proud that Europe is leading the way towards global sustainability.
I think you all agree with me - climate change is not only a challenge, it is a tremendous opportunity to reconcile trade, competitiveness and sustainable development – smart growth.
But let me finish by making a point that I think is systematically overlooked in the debate on climate change and sustainable development... democracy. As world citizen's it will be our level of knowledge, our daily actions, choices and outspoken demands on products, companies and politicians that will determine the temperature... Therefore, this discussion should not only be for a small elite of politicians, business people and experts – who usually are male... To do our homework properly, it will be important that we all can express our concerns, needs and expectations – and it will be important that we all can act. And this is key. People are tiered of hearing us politicians and experts describing in abstract ways what it is we must do. We risk losing momentum and credibility if we can't explain in simple ways how we can do it.
That’s why a new multilateral agreement must provide tools, not only for Governments but also for citizens and business. This idea based on track two diplomacy is a key driver behind an internet based project that I am hosting together with Gro Harlem Brundtland, the former Norwegian Prime Minister, and Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland.
The project is called "Road to Copenhagen" and it is about developing tools and giving as many people as possible a voice in the UN negotiations – in particular women. And this ladies and gentlemen is my key message. In the end, there can be no sustainable development without an equitable development and there can be no equitable development without gender equality... We must once and for all recognize that sustainable development and climate change - global security... cannot be effectively discussed or achieved with the involvement of only half of humanity. The challenges we face will require the energies of both women and men – I call it climate democracy.
Thank you for listening