Philip Wolfe outlines the REA’s scenario for meeting the 2020 targets and discuss the various options available, while suggesting the best way forward for UK
New opportunities in centralised energy generation
There are still several opportunities for large scale power and heat, which are not fully exploited by the present policies. Because of our historical focus on electricity, heat applications have been neglected – even heat used to drive electricity generation. This means that power stations typically waste perhaps 65% of their energy as heat. Such inefficiency is unacceptable in an energy constrained world, so there is a case for obliging new thermal power stations to be located where the heat can be captured and used through combined heat and power (CHP). The Biomass Task Force concluded that 7% of the UK’s heat energy could come from biomass. The government should now bring forward effective policy measures to turn this into reality. I would project that about 40% could be in the form of larger scale heat and CHP projects.
Next we can afford to be more ambitious with the Renewables Obligation. The British Wind Energy Association projects 8-9% contributions from both onshore and offshore wind. Even if this is on the optimistic side, the technologies covered by the RO should be able to deliver at least 23.5% of electrical energy when you add the potential of biomass, landfill gas, eligible hydropower, wave and tidal stream energy. This suggests the 2020 quota should be raised from the 20% specified in the Energy White Paper to 25 to 30%.
Thirdly, there needs to be better targeted measures to bring forward innovative generation technologies, especially tidal and wave power, where the UK leads the world. Photovoltaics too can provide large-scale generation for industrial and commercial premises, in addition to its contribution to onsite generation described below. The Renewables Obligation was designed to support near commercial sources, and is insufficient, even with the ‘multiple certificates’ amendment now being proposed, to deliver novel technologies. It is estimated that, with proper support, these emerging renewables can be contributing at least 3% of our electricity.
Furthermore, there are other large scale renewable generation opportunities, which we can no longer afford to dismiss. Potential local environmental impacts have historically inhibited several large scale renewable projects, such as tidal barrages and hydropower stations. Our greater understanding of climate change now enables us to achieve a more informed balance between local and global environmental issues, which means that large-scale renewables potential needs to be reassessed.
The Severn Tidal Barrage project, for example, is said to be capable of delivering an estimated 5% of our electricity with a highly predictable load profile. New approaches such as tidal lagoons might provide an alternative way of harnessing this energy resource. Similarly the residual large hydro potential, mainly in Scotland, also needs to be reassessed. There is also a major potential for on-site renewable power generation, which I will address below.
New opportunities in renewable transport fuels
The UK is more limited in the likely penetration of bio-fuels owing to our lower land area in relation to population. Nonetheless we can of course import and should in any case be capable of achieving the EU mandatory target of a 10% penetration of renewable fuels by 2020. The primary delivery mechanism will be the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO), where the quota should be extended to from 5% in 2010 to 10% by 2020. If the current buyout price proves inadequate to ensure that the quotas are actually met (for example if the fuel duty rebate is phased out), this should be raised accordingly and, if necessary the quotas raised too.
The RTFO will be met primarily by fuel providers ‘blending in’ the required percentage of bio-fuels into petrol and diesel. At the same time we should encourage the development of ‘high blend’ fuels, such as E85 (a blend of 85% bio-ethanol with 15% gasoline). Flex-fuel vehicles, now offered by an increasing number of vehicle manufacturers, can use both E85 and petrol. Wider adoption needs ready availability of high-blend fuels and this may need government intervention to encourage or require, say, all larger forecourts to have high-blend pumps.