Ahead of the appointment of a new UN chief for Afghanistan, a new report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) calls on the European Union and the United States to strike a 'grand bargain' and overhaul their Afghanistan strategy to avert failure. The new strategy should include a coordinated political outreach to moderate Taliban insurgents.
The report argues that EU governments' failure to coordinate strategies in Afghanistan has limited the EU's real impact on the US-led stabilization agenda. "EU countries have treated the common effort in Afghanistan like a pot-luck dinner where every guest is free to bring his own dish," writes Daniel Korski, the report's author, a former UK government official working on post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The report recommends that the current, military-focused coalition strategy should be replaced with a comprehensive political strategy. It makes the following key points.
Need for a 'grand bargain' - As part of a 'grand bargain', the EU should deploy more troops in Afghanistan, relax operating restrictions (so-called 'caveats') on their troops and increase development aid. In exchange, the US should accept a shift from a strategy based on combat operations to one focused on overall political impact, and the protection of civilians across the country. It should also abandon its failed counter-narcotics strategy.
Political inclusion - The international coalition should include mid-ranking, moderate insurgents in the political process, and help President Hamid Karzai to eventually reach political settlement with his opponents. The ECFR report encourages the coalition to develop a package of incentives for this endeavour, including a 50 million euro EU-funded pilot scheme to build local schools and hospitals.
EU underperformance - Most EU governments have only made a symbolic contribution to the military effort - with Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland and Portugal at the bottom of the list. (As an example, Austria has contributed a mere 3 soldiers, Ireland only 7, while Luxembourg 9. This stands in contrast to the UK's 7000 troops, Germany's 3000 and The Netherlands' 1500.)
New counter-narcotics strategy - The international coalition should design a new approach to counter-narcotics and abandon earlier plans for aerial spraying, or schemes for buying up opium crops. Instead, they should make clear that traffickers and their protectors, not farmers, are the problem. The emphasis should be placed on arresting and prosecuting drug lords and their backers in government.
Local delivery - The international community should prioritise local governance and rule-of-law reforms. Assistance efforts need to be refocused around delivering clear benefits on the ground, through strengthening provincial administrations, and ensuring that the Afghan police contribute to, rather than undermine, the safety of civilians.
UN super envoy - The 'grand bargain' agenda would require leadership that cuts across military, political and development lines, as well as institutional boundaries. The new UN envoy should be a double-hatted leader, bearing responsibility for the leadership of both the UN and NATO. This super envoy should be endorsed by the European Union, and the set-up should be cemented through a new UN Security Council resolution.
Joschka Fischer, former German Foreign Minister and ECFR's co-chair said:
"Afghanistan has fallen victim to the scandal and unpopularity of the war in Iraq. To save the country from chaos and total collapse, the international coalition needs to design a new strategy. But this cannot happen unless European Union governments first coordinate their own priorities and development goals."
Martti Ahtisaari, former President of Finland and ECFR's co-chair said:
"To turn NATO into an efficient actor in Afghanistan, those EU governments which have so far underperformed need to boost their levels of military engagement. Unless this happens, the EU risks more trouble ahead from the increasing insurgency, and may have to stay for much longer than originally planned."
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